Posted by Ed on June 21, 2007, 12:13 am Uncertainty is unavoidable in any complex analysis The S-R matrix generated from the CRDM air quality Differences in population susceptibilities or differences The importance of adequate, readily available electricity Numerous studies have found a significant relationship **********
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Archives of Environmental Health
lead to increased mortality over time. More research is
needed to investigate this hypothesis.
using estimated parameters and inputs from several
models. A variety of inputs were used to estimate the
health effects of proposed power plants. These included
emission inventories, air quality model calculations,
epidemiological estimates of concentration-response
functions, population estimates, and estimates of the
impact of future regulations, technology, and human
behavior. Recognizing these uncertainties, we made
conservative assumptions throughout this analysis. For
example, in developing the concentration–response
function, we used the same population group as Pope
et al.17—individuals older than 30 yr of age. In developing
our best estimate of the impact on mortality, we
chose the most conservative relative risk factor from that
study. Therefore, the actual mortality might be greater.
model is not as sophisticated as other models, such as
the Regulatory Modeling System for Aerosols and Acid
Deposition (REMSAD), California Puff model, or the
Community Multi-Scale Air Quality model.31 However,
the S-R matrix is not nearly as resource-intensive. Also,
in at least one comparison, it appears to give relatively
conservative estimates. For instance, the S-R matrix produced
in a previous analysis of the health impacts of
power plants generally produced air quality changes
about one-third smaller than those generated by
REMSAD version 5.0.32
in the composition of PM may lead to variations
in the concentration-response relationship between PM
and premature mortality among locations. In our study,
we assumed similar PM composition and a constant
impact on the population across the affected region
because location-specific biases will likely cancel out
one another when changes in mortality are calculated.
in a growing society cannot be underestimated.
Our society has a significant population of medically
fragile individuals who depend on an uninterrupted supply
of electricity for a large variety of in-home medical
devices and for climate control, particularly in temperature
extremes. However, it is equally arguable that more
research and infrastructure can be committed to exploring
cleaner forms of energy production, including solar,
wind, and well-planned nuclear power generation. The
nearly negligible mortality risk associated with solar and
wind power generation, in particular, should serve as a
benchmark for national policy regarding acceptable levels
of mortality associated with fossil fuel combustion.
between fine PM and mortality, hospital admissions,
asthma attacks, and other adverse health
effects.16,29,33–36 This study could be expanded by apply
ing the same model to other health outcomes, including
cardiopulmonary mortality, lung cancer mortality,16 and
hospital admissions for such problems as chronic
obstructive pulmonary disease, pneumonia,33 and
asthma,29,34,35 or days of work lost due to these problems.
36 The significance of the relationship of respiratory
disease to fine PM is reasonably consistent across the
United States, as well as in countries throughout the
world.37–57 Although current science has not completely
determined the pathophysiology of PM, the strength of
the association between PM2.5 and premature mortality is
significant enough to consider application of precautionary
principles with policy related to energy production
from fossil fuels.
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