I like what you've done here it's a pretty cool little forumla but it seems to take the complicated way to saying, "You can improve 9-11 seconds in the mile over the next 3 months" depending on how fast they are. A 5 min miler will improve about 11 seconds from the beginning of the racing season, a 4:30 miler 9.5 seconds and a 4:10 miler will improve 9 seconds. Why would you need to punch in the formula for that one? Unless you are just obsessed about getting things down to the most minute detail (which I know a lot of Coaches are when it comes to times and numbers and splits).
And with the times for predicting the 2 mile and 5k how are you using the formula?
If you are a 5 minute miler. Do you punch in
5.00 for the mile time and multiply that by 2.1? for 10.50 (for 10:50?) This seems pretty close and relates to what you see most people running. This is slowing down from your mile 5:00 mins to a 5:25 (25 seconds off your mile pr) which can be done but I have seen people get down below that (I would tell my runners to slow down 20 seconds) and some super strong ones can do better than that.
or are we taking the 300 seconds which equals a 5 min miler and multiplying by 2.1 which would equal 630 seconds (10:30). I would say that is closer if we are talking about the maximum potential for a person over their life time. You won't find to many high school runners hitting that kind of conversion since they are still new to the sport. It is not uncommon to see runners being able to slow down 15 seconds off their mile time to get their 2 mile goal pace, but they would probably be older and have years of running under their belt. The person would have to have a good combination of speed and endurance but you can check out the NCAA collegiate level or National level to find 4 min milers who can run 7:50s. Or certain women runners who can run 4:30 for the mile who and 8:50 for 3k (equal to 9:32 2 mile).
For the 5k are we taking a 5 min miler (5 x 3.4) which gives you 17 flat? Or are we doing 300(seconds) x 3.4 for 1020 seconds or 16:20 which seems a little to fast.
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