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100 % the dolphins are NOT trying to get the first picks in the draft. And the reason is exactly what you laid out.

They are still in litigation for the Flores stuff, they paid a fine and got dinged 2 draft picks and they are currently on double -secret probation.

The dolphins can't afford any more league violations or even the hint of tanking.

They are simply in a full rebuild while saddled with the yoke of $100M in dead money for that loser QB Tua.

What they are doing is a full re-set. Trading older, expensive players, adding draft capital.
Drafting a new offense so they all grow together and using FA and trades to bolster the defense.

They are 100 % not tanking, they just aren't very good yet. But Hafley is gonna go all out to win 5+ games this year and I hope he does it. Hafley game planned vs NFC North for 2 years and as luck would have it, the Dolphins play the NFC north this season. I hope Hafley goes 3-1 vs the Black & Blue and notches some surprise wins.